Tremors underfoot: Drey wins, Ernst drops

Catelin Drey

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The earth beneath Iowa politics shifted last week as Democrat Catelin Drey of Sioux City flipped a red Iowa Senate district, and word leaked that Republican US Sen. Joni Ernst of Red Oak would not seek re-election next year.

Drey, 37, is the daughter-in-law of Jean and Steve Drey recently of Storm Lake and now of Sioux City. (Their lovely house on Irving Street is for sale at just the right price. We miss them.) Catelin is married to Tyrel Drey. As Storm Lakers we offer hearty congratulations and would like to claim her as our own.

Drey beat Republican Christopher Prosch of Sioux City 55-44% in a special election Aug. 26 to fill a vacancy left with the death of Republican Sen. Rocky DeWitt of Lawton.

The district went for Trump by 10 points, so this was a 20-point flip from red to blue.

Before that, Mike Zimmer of Clinton flipped a senate seat to blue in a special election last January after Republican Sen. Chris Cournoyer was appointed lieutenant governor.

Sioux City and Clinton ain’t woke. They aren’t actually that far right, it turns out. Drey and Zimmer won on Kim Reynolds fatigue: shaming gays, banning books, telling women how they will conduct themselves, closing nursing homes and raising property taxes.

“I do think that it was about Kim Reynolds,” Republican Woodbury County Supervisor Mark Nelson wrote on Facebook the day after Drey’s victory. “The policy that's been coming out of Des Moines, if you're a regular Iowan — Republican, independent, Democrat — has just been awful.”

Drey won with good humor on affordability. She jeered at attack ads. She bored in on costs: childcare, housing and health care, over and over again. She dwelled on funding for education. She defended bodily autonomy.

Prosch ran on a typical Iowa GOP platform that focused on eliminating the income tax.

The race was nationalized. Volunteers swarmed Sioux City door-knocking.

Drey won big. She credited her message on affordability and moderation.

Her victory breaks the Republican supermajority in the Senate. That can be a hurdle to gubernatorial nominations.

More important, it feels like our politics is sobering up. We might be tacking back to center.

Reynolds is not running for re-election in 2026. Probable Democratic nominee Rob Sand has a lot of money and a real shot. His schtick of shunning political parties and singing “America The Beautiful” on the stump has its Corny Iowa appeal. Congressman Randy Feenstra is the top official seeking the GOP nomination.

As auditor, Sand is the only Democrat elected to statewide office.

That may change next fall with Ernst stepping aside. Even with her “We’re All Gonna Die” baggage, an incumbent US senator is very difficult to dislodge — especially a Republican in Iowa. Word is that Rep. Ashley Hinson will seek the Republican nomination to succeed Ernst. The former TV newscaster is a MAGA star. The Democratic field is formidable: Nathan Sage, an ex-Marine reared in a trailer park who pulled himself up by the bootstraps; Josh Turek, a wheelchair basketball gold medalist who won in unwoke Council Bluffs; Jackie Norris, who organized Barack Obama’s stunning victory in Iowa; and state legislator Zach Wahls of Iowa City.

So we will have open races for governor and for US senate with Democratic candidates who have a chance of actually winning. You have to favor the Republican. But we traditionally favored divided government. We need a check on the hard lurch right.

Opportunities exist. The Second Congressional District held by Hinson opens up if she runs for Senate. Democrat Lindsay James of Dubuque, a state representative, is an attractive candidate. Two other congressional districts around Davenport and Des Moines are in play. The fourth district also is open if Feenstra runs for governor — you just never know. Tom Harkin and Berkley Bedell were elected to Congress against the odds in 1974.

Catelin Drey won through organizing and appealing to the bottom line. So did Zimmer. Hinson is tough, but the Democrats have strong candidates in what will be a targeted race. Rob Sand is smart and disciplined, and certainly believes he can win. He will have at least $10 million.

Republicans are nervous. Ernst was. Reynolds knew she was unpopular. People are hot about rising property taxes and falling test scores. They are worried about their water. Women want rights. Banning books does nothing but cause trouble. They went too far. It feels like the pendulum is creeping back.

Iowans groping to find center will get there after a series of left and right turns. We veered off into the right ditch and are attempting a course correction. Different metaphor: If not a wave, a ripple of good sense just went over our toes. Feels like relief, momentarily.