McConnell should be sweating it

Ernst trails in key Iowa Senate race with the dead weight of Trump on her shoulders

EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK

BY ART CULLEN

One big reason Republicans are shoving a Supreme Court appointment through before the next inauguration is their fear of losing in November. Those fears are well-placed. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday. The next day, one of the most highly respected polls in politics found Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, trailing Democrat Theresa Greenfield by three percentage points.

The Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Ann Selzer also found that all four of Iowa’s congressional races are dead heats — interesting in a state that went so bigly for Trump in 2016. It suggests that President Trump and Joe Biden are also running neck-and-neck.

The nation has its eyes on a handful of Senate races where incumbent Republicans are flailing — Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado and, yes, Iowa — that could flip the upper chamber blue. The polls show McConnell should be sweating it. So far, $155 million has been spent in Iowa alone. The TV is filled with dark messages of political rot non-stop. Greenfield has more money than Ernst. She is wearing well, attracting 10% of voters who supported Trump four years ago.

The Iowa Poll indicates it boils down to the same point, as always: Joni Ernst has not done enough for Iowa. More than 60% of voters say that. Not so long ago, 60% of voters approved of her performance. Trump is dead weight for her.

She has not done enough to help Cedar Rapids, our purple Second City, recover from the pummeling it took from a derecho wind of 140 mph in August. She stood by while President Trump started trade wars with our biggest ag export customers: China, Mexico, Europe and Canada. Trump toyed with the corn ethanol industry for the past three years while prices plummeted. And the pandemic is raging out of control in Iowa, one of the hottest spots in the nation, while Congress dithers over aid.

Not good conditions for a Republican incumbent.

Then Justice Ginsburg died. Ernst had no choice but to tack with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and grease the rails for a vote before January, lame duck or not. McConnell keeps the checkbook.

Again, that’s the problem. Our junior senator is in lockstep with Trump and McConnell the whole distance. Iowans don’t like that. They like maverick, as Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley used to be. They also have a Midwestern sense of fair play and honesty that do not brook rushing this vote when McConnell said the exact opposite four years ago.

Relief has come slow to Cedar Rapids. It will not be in shape by November. A few thousand votes in that swing city can negate a few thousand votes for Ernst/Trump in arch-conservative northwest Iowa. And even in conservative quarters, they didn’t cotton to Trump disrespecting ethanol or chopping down soybean prices with his trade wars, or his utter vulgarity.

The pandemic will not just disappear before the election. We are in the midst of a September surge. Ernst trails Greenfield among women by 20 points in the Iowa Poll. All those votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act are roosting at just the wrong time. Rural hospitals are closing, and urban hospitals are shutting down maternity wards to cut costs. Duly noted.

Then there’s the court vacancy. Who really knows how that plays?

Abortion is already factored into the calculus for Ernst. People who vote on that issue have been energized and organized since 1972. They’re the reason Trump is even in the equation in Iowa. That support is maxed out, I believe.

Democrats are apoplectic over the hypocrisy of rushing to replace Ginsburg when President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, couldn’t even get a Senate hearing from McConnell. That 20-point spread among women could grow in favor of Greenfield if they perceive abortion rights vanishing. Most voters support access to legal abortion.

People who pay attention to the Supreme Court made up their minds before Justice Ginsburg died and before the poll was taken.

More are scared to death of Covid and the state’s lame response. Or they are frustrated that relief to the derecho disaster was late and spotty. Or they really don’t like being called socialists for taking a $14 billion farm bailout because of Trump’s bluster and incompetence in trade. They share a sense of deep anxiety that goes well beyond the high court.

Ernst should be scared as well. There will be no miracle cure by November, those laid-off manufacturing workers from Waterloo to Davenport will not be called back, and farmers will nervously await the crop adjuster’s visit after the harvest. None of it is good. There can be October surprises. It will have to be a doozy to unwrite this script.