Americans are Finally Drinking More Milk

U.S. fluid milk sales have changed substantially over the past several decades. This graph (Source: Central Marketing Area Federal Milk Market) depicts total fluid milk sales by product from 1975 through 2023. Although total fluid sales did not vary dramatically during the first 35 years of this time frame, they have decreased by 22.0 percent since 2010. In addition, the mix of products comprising this total has changed significantly, as indicated by the same graph.

A persistent downward trend in per capita sales of total beverage milk shows year-to-year per capita sales have previously only increased three times over the 48-year period with the last increase occurring in 1989. Per capita sales declined by approximately 1.9 percent during 2023 and have decreased 27.9 percent since 2010. Compared with 1975, per capita sales of beverage milk had decreased by approximately 48.1 percent.

After trending sharply upward from the early 1980’s through the late 1990’s, skim milk sales had dropped substantially since, falling below 1975 per capita levels during 2019 with year over year decreases since. Total beverage milk sales in 2023 were 51.9 percent of the 1975 level on a per capita basis.

However, it appears that U.S. fluid milk consumption has finally stabilized. Bottled milk sales topped year-ago volumes in four out of 2024’s first seven months.

This second graph (Source: October Daily Dairy Report) shows January through July milk consumption was 0.6 percent greater than the same period of 2023.

Fluid milk sales also climbed in 2020 when the government distributed food donation boxes that included milk. With that exception, this year marked the first increase in milk demand since 2009.

Part of that shift is because consumers have grown increasingly focused on health and wellness. ABC Fitness reported first-quarter gym visits were up 60 percent year over year at the tens of thousands of fitness centers it monitors. The number of clients who used personal trainers jumped 78 percent, and many of those trainers coached their clients to increase protein intake lending to the increased demand in whey protein concentrates and other protein-laden dairy products.

Consumers also increasingly prefer full-fat dairy, following a shift in nutritional advice distinguishing between saturated fats and healthier fats. Consumers also recognize that, while whole milk contains more calories than low-fat milk, it increases satiety and often results in lower daily calorie intake.

Whole milk sales in January through July are up 15 percent from a decade ago. Sales of other varieties of conventional milk are down 29 percent over the same 10-year period.

Consumers seem to be willing to spend the extra for organic and value-added milks such as those with higher protein or a longer shelf-life. Organic milk sales climbed 21 percent over the past decade, a period in which organic whole milk sales more than doubled. Meanwhile, the value of U.S. plant-based milk sales was expected to drop 8 percent this year compared to 2023.

The higher fluid milk sales help drive higher revenues for dairy producers.