Editorial: Not a good sign

The drought that has gripped Northwest Iowa since last summer may be an ominous sign that climatologists have been watching for: Where will the megadrought that top scientists report already is underway in the Great Plains and Southwest settle? The signs are that Buena Vista County, in “severe” drought rapidly heading for “extreme,” is on the eastern edge of this hot-and-dry belt that is projected to last for decades.

Of course, the weather can change. The state climatologist tells us that Northwest Iowa appears stuck for the next 30 days with dry conditions heading into the critical corn pollination period. Is this something we snap out of, or should we make plans to settle in and adapt? It feels like the latter.

The City of Storm Lake is about to impose temporary water conservation as the 10-day forecast calls for more heat and less than an inch of rain. It also has embarked on a water study to determine needs, costs and rates. The city intends to spend about $3 million on a new water tower, and it is likely to drill another well into the Dakota Aquifer to satisfy growing demand. The city has little other choice.

Previous modeling of the Dakota Aquifer from more than 10 years ago showed pressure on reserves in the Storm Lake and Cherokee area. Consumption has increased since. We also draw from the Jordan Aquifer, which is being depleted by increasing livestock, ethanol and industrial consumption. Under rainfall patterns of the past, it was clear that aquifers could not keep pace (especially the Jordan, which is deeper and does not recharge as fast as the Dakota). If we are set into a long-term drought, worse than the 1950s or the 1930s, we cannot continue to increase consumption.

This is not just our opinion after reading the 10-day forecast. Dr. Gene Takle of Iowa State University, a world leader in climate analysis, believes that multi-decade drought could settle over western Iowa. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University reported a year ago about the reality of the worst drought in 1,200 years setting in. Wildfires from Arizona to California to Colorado confirm it. Livestock are being liquidated in the Dakotas. Dairy, poultry and pork production are intensifying in the Upper Midwest. Water is the stuff of life, after all. It could be in increasingly short supply around here. This has never been our concern before, and it remains hard to believe. The science confirms our pedestrian observations: we have gone through the wettest century and are in the nascent stage of the driest one.

We should center our water planning around the worst case, because water is the new oil. We should examine our assumptions at the state and local levels about how Iowa handles its most precious natural resource.

Consumers will become increasingly aware with more water and sewer rate increases that follow years of rate increases. Rates can force conservation if they are rationed correctly. Water costs have been discounted for more consumption in the past. We should reconsider.

Storm Lake should steer clear of more enterprises that consume a lot of water, like food processing. Evaporating rural wells suggest that more concentrated livestock production is not well advised. We will do well to support what we already have.

The state, with federal assistance, should aim to restore some of the millions upon millions of acres of wetlands that were drained up until the 1970s. They are essential not only for water filtration but also for sequestering water. We have doubled the size of our tiling system in the past 40 years and whisk the water away so fast it doesn’t have time to percolate to the Dakota or the Jordan. We should encourage cropping systems that build soil health and increase water-carrying capacity.

The problems of heat and drought are likely to hang over western Iowa for generations. The decisions we make now will have long consequences. We should exercise the utmost in informed caution as we try to cope.