It doth restoreth my soul that Kamala Harris posted a three-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll on Saturday night.
Iowa has not lost its good sense after all as the pendulum swings back from the hard right fast.
Republicans were incredulous, but the poll conducted by Ann Selzer is the gold standard for America. Her polls are (almost) always on the money. To wit, last poll followed by actual result:
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
Remember how so many polls got it so wrong in 2016.
Over the past several cycles she picked up on late shifts among independents and undecided voters. Generally, whatever the direction was in that weekend poll, it would inch farther along by Tuesday. That is, if Harris had a three-point lead on Saturday, she well could see a four-point win on election day. We shall see.
The shift has been huge. It feels real.
In June, Joe Biden trailed Trump by 18 points in Iowa. By September, Harris trailed by only four. Now she leads. What happened?
In July, the Iowa Supreme Court agreed with Gov. Kim Reynolds and let a six-week abortion ban take effect.
Independent women, and especially women over 65 who remember how things were, rushed for the exits. They now favor Harris two-to-one.
The biggest issue for Harris supporters in the latest Iowa Poll is saving democracy at over 50%, followed by abortion at 22%.
Voters were not confident in Biden, but once he cleared the way for Harris the game changed. Trump looked like the old and feeble one. He started to break down. Harris pummeled him in the debate and left him on the mat. Iowans noticed.
Trump became increasingly vulgar and mean, especially since he was convicted of fraud. His sense of fear is evident. Iowans saw Harris pick football coach Tim Walz from Mankato. It was all backslaps and politics of joy. Support in Iowa among White men softened from the September Iowa Poll to the latest. Talk of tariffs hasn’t helped. It even makes farmers think twice about Trump. It certainly makes agribusiness folks in West Des Moines nervous.
We do see many more Harris signs than Trump signs and flags here. That was not true in 2016 or 2020. The poll results are every bit plausible.
Iowans are tired of the hardcore politics. They don’t like school vouchers or messing with Area Education Agencies They are not crazy about book bans. They didn’t like Ron DeSantis at all. The luster has worn off Gov. Reynolds, too. No doubt, she took note of the poll results. If they bear out Tuesday, it will have major implications for the 2026 governor’s race. Extremism will remain on the ballot. Iowans are telling the pollster that they do not like extremism, whether it is authoritarian declarations or outright abortion bans. We do like tax cuts. Always suckers for a tax cut or senior day at the Bomgaars store.
If Harris wins Iowa, she will win the White House in a landslide. If she wins Iowa, the first and third congressional seats will flip from red to blue. That could flip control of the House. The Democrat leads the Republican comfortably in each district, the Iowa Poll reports. Lanon Baccam of Des Moines outperforms Harris in the Third District, which tells us this is a grassroots and not a top-down shift. Could a wave hit the Iowa House of Representatives? The river is so wide.
Iowa is purple again. Or so the poll says on the cusp of the election. It seems right. We may be tacking back to center, captain. Godspeed.
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