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Donald Trump’s first term as president brought sweeping change to environmental regulations, trade policy and a host of issues that impact America’s agriculture sector. After winning his return bid on Tuesday, Trump’s second term is likely to once again have a sizable impact on the nation’s farms and ranches.
Here are four ways Trump’s next four years as president could impact the agriculture industry.
President Joe Biden’s administration spent billions on agriculture practices meant to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, but some environmentalists worry Trump will reverse those investments.
“There’s a possibility that $19 billion of historic generational climate investments in agriculture could be completely lost,” said Ranjani Prabhakar, the legislative director of healthy communities for Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law center.
The nation’s agriculture sector accounted for 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data. The agency cites cattle production, rice crops and the application of chemical fertilizers as major sources of climate pollution.
Emissions are tracked in million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent gases
During his first term, Trump reversed more than 100 climate and environmentally-focused rules that originated under former president Barack Obama’s administration. Under Trump, the USDA also stopped publishing government studies that mentioned climate change, according to a 2019 Politico investigation. He also pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Project 2025, the roadmap for a second term created by many Trump supporters and advisors, outlines that, under Trump, the USDA should remove the country from any “schemes” to produce sustainable food or provide funding for climate-smart practices for producers.
“From the outset, the next Administration should: Denounce efforts to place ancillary issues like climate change ahead of food productivity and affordability when it comes to agriculture,” the document states.
As extreme weather events increase, some farmers hope for more federal aid and policies to mitigate climate-related risks.
September 18, 2024
During his campaign, Trump promised to deport upwards of 20 million undocumented people, many of them agricultural workers who perform the dangerous jobs most Americans don’t want. Trump’s close allies have recently proposed eliminating the H-2A program, which farmers said is necessary to fill labor shortages.
In an interview with The New York Times, Stephen Miller, who led Trump’s immigration efforts during his first term, said Trump's goal was to upend industries that rely on immigrant labor.
“Mass deportation will be a labor-market disruption celebrated by American workers, who will now be offered higher wages with better benefits to fill these jobs,” he said.
Some research suggests deportations, especially at a large scale, could backfire on U.S. workers. In 2023, University of Colorado researchers estimated that, for every 1 million unauthorized workers deported, 88,000 native workers would lose jobs. When companies lose their labor forces, the researchers concluded, they find ways to use less labor, not replace their lost workers.
A historical example is the end of the Bracero Program, which allowed Mexican workers into the U.S. for seasonal jobs. Instead of hiring more U.S. workers when their labor force was suddenly gone, farmers turned to heavy machinery, according to 2017 research. There was no corresponding increase in employment or wages for native workers.
At the start of his second year in office, Trump, responding to what he said were unfair trade practices, enacted the most significant increase in U.S. tariffs since the Great Depression. Trump imposed higher taxes on imports from several countries, including China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India and Turkey.
In response, many of the affected countries imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports of agriculture and food products, leading to an estimated $27 billion decline in foreign sales between mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service. The losses were most pronounced in the Midwest, with Iowa, Illinois and Kansas — states that collectively account for more than 50% of the region’s total agricultural exports agriculture — hardest hit. Soybeans were the most affected, but the corn and pork industries also suffered significant damage.
Trump, during his latest campaign, promised to be even more aggressive, proposing tariffs up to 10% on most imports, more than 60% on Chinese goods, and a “100% tariff” on nations that stop using the U.S. dollar.
The agriculture industry has undergone significant consolidation over the past several decades. From seeds to fertilizer, meat production to farming equipment, the agricultural supply chain is dominated today by roughly three dozen companies, according to an analysis from Farm Action, a nonprofit dedicated to fighting corporate monopolies in food and agriculture.
Some blame consolidation for the rise in food prices, which many Americans have named as the most pressing financial problem facing families this election.
Those corporations “have the power to decide who gets to farm and how they farm, what food gets produced and sold in this country, and how much we all have to pay for it,” said Basel Musharbash, an antitrust attorney and principal author of a consolidation report published by Farm Action. Read more from Investigate Midwest here
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