Editorial: Abortion politics

The Arizona Supreme Court threw a twist into the nation’s politics this week when it ruled that a 19th-Century law banning nearly all abortions is enforceable. Arizona is a presidential swing state with a key Senate race in which native Iowan right-winger Kari Lake is running against Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat.

Lake previously praised the 1864 state law that bans abortion except if the life of the mother is in danger. She also supported a six-week abortion ban, similar to Iowa’s “fetal heartbeat” law that is bound up in the courts. After the Arizona court ruling, Lake distanced herself from the abortion ban, as did other Republicans who have worked the last 50 years to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Donald Trump appointed the US Supreme Court justices who made the demise of Roe v. Wade possible. Trump said he does not support a national abortion ban but would leave it up to the states (if you can believe anything he says). Left up to Arizona, abortion is illegal. That will weigh on voters in a statewide election for president and senate.

It is not at all clear how the politics plays out this November in Iowa. Although some 60% of Iowans believe abortion should be legal, that issue is not likely to upset the strong majorities Republicans hold in the Iowa Legislature. Gov. Kim Reynolds, an anti-abortion advocate, is not on the ballot.

Reynolds last July signed a law that makes abortion illegal at the detection of a heartbeat, which was challenged in court. A district judge issued an injunction staying its enforcement pending a review by the Iowa Supreme Court. Oral arguments were made to the high court this week, and a ruling is expected in June. Reynolds said she is optimistic that the law will survive.

Legislators crafted administrative rules this week that would implement the law should the supreme court rule in favor of Reynolds.

In-vitro fertilization is also called into question with the definition of “unborn” person. Life begins at conception, under the law, which would place Iowa in a similar situation to Alabama, whose supreme court declared in-vitro fertilization illegal because the process discards embryos.

Abortion may be an issue that favors Democrats in suburban legislative races this fall. The fact remains that Sen. Lynn Evans and Rep. Megan Jones, both local pro-life Republicans, face no opposition. If they did, they would be heavily favored to win unless Caitlin Clark decides to move to Storm Lake and runs as a Democrat.

Despite public opinion on abortion, polling indicates that Trump will easily carry Iowa.

Abortion protections will not be written into our Constitution by popular referendum because the ballot question first must be approved by the Legislature, which is likely to remain in Republican control. The GOP base is fueled by the pro-life movement.

Reynolds will be up for re-election in 2026 should she choose to run. Abortion should remain a live issue until then, as it has been since at least 1864. In a statewide race, as Kari Lake acknowledges with her flip-flop, abortion could play a deciding role — especially if the Iowa Supreme Court lets the “fetal heartbeat” law survive. Reynolds’s approval rating has been dropping, in large part because she has tacked so hard to the right. Attorney General Brenna Bird could have problems, too.

For now, abortion in Iowa remains legal up to 20 weeks. In-vitro fertilization remains legal. Reynolds could call a special session of the legislature to restrict abortion if the court rules against her in June, but that would seem improbable. The best thing that could happen for Republicans in Iowa is for the court to rule against them — the GOP can assail the court and say that it tried to protect life, while dominating at the November elections. Republicans will have more trouble but not enough to disrupt their majority, we suspect, if the court upholds the fetal heartbeat law and lifts the injunction. Once abortion actually is illegal, as it now is in Arizona, the politics shift. That has not happened here, yet, and even if abortion becomes illegal its impact may not be felt in the legislative balance for years.